WIT Press

Analyzing Timber-price Uncertainty In Forest Planning

Price

Free (open access)

Paper DOI

10.2495/RISK980171

Volume

31

Pages

8

Published

1998

Size

569 kb

Author(s)

Pekka Leskinen

Abstract

Analyzing timber-price uncertainty in forest planning Pekka Leskinen Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O.Pox 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland. Email: pekka. leskinen@metla.fi Abstract Variation in timber prices is a major source of uncertainty in tactical forest planning. In this study, uncertainty is measured by using stochastic timber-price scenarios over the planning period. The simulation model is constructed on the basis of observed timber prices in Finland, including the possibility of price peaks, i.e. exceptionally high timber prices paid in the early 1950s and mid- 1970s. It is also demonstrated how expert judgment can be incorporated in model construction so that the model also includes information external to the past history. When using timber-price scenarios in forest planning calculations one should take into account that timber sellers adapt their timber sales transactions to variable timber prices. Therefore, it is st

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