Author(s)

Lu Yongqi, Hao liming & Liu Binjiang

Abstract

As energy is the major source of GHG emissions, the assessment of the present situation and future patterns of GHG emissions from energy activities is carried out for China. The OECD/IPCC methodology is adopted to estimate emissions, while the LEAP model as the tool of energy supply and demand prediction. The investigation is conducted into the current energy GHG emissions, and two scenarios are assumed for future prediction, namely BAU scenario and Optimistic scenario, with the time horizon as 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020. BAU scenario attempts to reflect as much as possible the governmental policy and plan on economic growth, economic structure, population control and energy saving, describing the possible emissions pattern in the future. Under BAU scenario, in the y

Keywords