Author(s)

A. Magnan

Abstract

This text aims to show that in addition to the uncertainties concerning the impacts of climate change, another major source of uncertainty must also be considered: that which arises from the evolution of tourist requirements and their attitudes towards coastal practices. Nevertheless, we argue that these uncertainties cannot be an excuse to wait for more precise scientific knowledge to emerge and that a number of principles for adaptation can be highlighted. Keywords: coastal tourism, climate and anthropogenic uncertainties, adaptation, Mediterranean. 1 Introduction Coastal tourism is a crucial issue for numerous countries all over the world due to its economic weight on local, national and regional economies. In the Mediterranean, for example, and since the beginning of this decade, annual growth of the industry has ranged between 3 and 4%. Every year the basin is visited by more than 300 million tourists, a number which is expected to increase to 400 million in 2025 [1]. These figures encompass international as well as domestic visitor flows. Overall, the beach holiday formula plays a key role, as it remains a defining characteristic of 80% of Mediterranean tourism activity [2]. This example highlights that current tourism behaviours are significantly influenced by the \“Sea, Sand and Sun” fashion trend which partly relies on the climatic and environmental features of destinations. However, climatic factors are not the sole drivers of tourists’ choices [3], although they are important [4]. Consequently, two main dynamics must be considered when trying to imagine

Keywords

coastal tourism, climate and anthropogenic uncertainties, adaptation, Mediterranean