Author(s)

S. Pascale, L. Giosa, F. Sdao & A. Sole

Abstract

This paper deals with the conception, the development and the subsequent validation of an integrated numerical model for the assessment of systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized areas subject to flood risk. The proposed model, which is based on the studies of Tamura et al. (Eu. J. Oper. Res., 2000) and Pascale et al. (Ad. Geo., 2007) considers vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which different elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. Therefore, it facilitates the identification, in selected areas, of the elements that are mainly responsible for functional loss and which thus make the whole system critical. This feature makes the proposed model effectively able to support correct territorial planning and suitable management of an emergency following natural disasters that trigger or remobilize mass movements. Keywords: systemic vulnerability, territorial system, network of influence between the diverse nodes. 1 Introduction Floods events can sometimes produce catastrophic effects on a given territory. Not only do they often cause loss of human lives but they can also cause more or less serious damage to the so-called \“vulnerable elements” of the territory, such as buildings or infrastructure as well as causing damage and temporary or permanent malfunctioning of economic, service and productive activities. This work puts forward a model of vulnerability to flood risk in anthropic areas defined as Systemic Vulnerability [2, 4, 9]; a model which has already been proposed for the study of systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas [10, 11], modified to account for the specific vulnerability of flood events. The model is

Keywords

systemic vulnerability, territorial system, network of influence between the diverse nodes.