WIT Press

The Estimation Of Temporal And Spatial Fluctuations In A Forest Fire Hazard Index – The Case Of A Forested Public Area In Japan


Free (open access)

Paper DOI






Page Range

397 - 404




786 kb


K. Tamai & Y. Goto


Few studies have estimated the risk of forest fire in individual forest stands using forest data, such as the leaf area index. Mapped estimates of the risk of forest fire would benefit forest management, and could be used to decide restrictions on the public use of forest areas. In this study, the litter moisture content ratio was predicted with this model and forest fire hazard was estimated in Tatsunokuchi-yama Green Shower Park, with around 40ha forested area for 2 litter drying periods as a trial. This park is located in central Japan. The model was adapted to the area of around 40ha in this park classified into 9 stands with tree height, tree species and slope direction. The solar radiation on the forest floor and surface soil moisture at 5cm depth was recorded in each stand. Precipitation above the canopy was measured with a rain gauge at a weather station in the base area of the Park. Litter moisture was simulated every 30minutes. Fuel moisture decreased with litter drying speed for each forest stand among simulated days depending on the solar radiation on the each stand floor. Firstly, the simulated result in the defoliate period (24 February–3 May, 2005) is discussed. Litter moisture was less than 0.2g g-1 and fire risk is judged to be highest in 7 out of the 9 forest stands on 2 May. On the other hand, spatial variation of litter moistue was widest at 0.198–0.811g g-1 on 27 February. This means that the litter drying speed and fire risk is different for each forest stand. Thus, it is significant to construct the forest fire warning system for each forest stand and to manage people’s activities in this public forested area to prevent forest fire. Keywords: water budget, solar radiation, forest stand, public forest.


water budget, solar radiation, forest stand, public forest.