Development And Evaluation Of FLEMOps – A New Flood Loss Estimation MOdel For The Private Sector
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A. H. Thieken, A. Olschewski, H. Kreibich, S. Kobsch & B. Merz
The estimation of flood losses is an essential component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping or financial appraisals in the reinsurance sector. However, only simple models, e.g. stage-damage curves, have been used frequently. Further, the reliability of flood loss and risk estimates is fairly unknown, since flood loss models are scarcely validated. In the aftermath of flooding in August 2002 large data sets of flood losses were collected at affected properties in Germany. These data were used to derive multi-factorial loss models. This paper presents FLEMOps – the Flood Loss Estimation Model for the private sector, which estimates direct monetary flood losses of residential buildings and household contents considering water level, building type and building quality. In an additional model stage (FLEMOps+), the effects of private precautionary measures as well as of the contamination of the floodwater can be quantified. Together with census data and land use information the model is adapted for applications on the meso-scale. Further, different data sets of repair costs for single buildings and in whole municipalities were used to validate loss estimates on the micro- as well as on the meso-scale. First results show that the model FLEMOps+ outperforms simple stage-damage-functions. Keywords: damage estimation, precaution, contamination, model validation, flood losses.
damage estimation, precaution, contamination, model validation, flood losses.